By Kelvin Kemm, Ph.D. in Nuclear Physics
Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow
January 24, 2011
I started watching a National Geographic programme on TV about how the climate had changed over the past centuries. I have always had great respect for National Geographic because its material has always been well researched and presented.
The programme showed how the sea level rose dramatically 125,000 years ago. Geological records showed underwater corals that were frozen in time in rock formations that are now some metres above sea level. Professional geologists explained how science was able to show all this to be true. Up to this point, the programme was good.
Then, suddenly, the programme switched to projecting sea level rise into the future. They came up with a figure of a 1-m sea level rise in the next 100 years. This figure is hundreds of percentage points higher than even the highest serious projection. National Geographic then made a serious error when it said that this sea level rise could occur if the polar ice caps melted. Note the plural. The North Polar ice cap is entirely floating, so, even if it all melted, it would not add to sea level rise at all. When floating ice melts, it does not change the water level. Put a block of ice in a glass of water and watch it.
The programme showed how the sea level rose dramatically 125,000 years ago. Geological records showed underwater corals that were frozen in time in rock formations that are now some metres above sea level. Professional geologists explained how science was able to show all this to be true. Up to this point, the programme was good.
Then, suddenly, the programme switched to projecting sea level rise into the future. They came up with a figure of a 1-m sea level rise in the next 100 years. This figure is hundreds of percentage points higher than even the highest serious projection. National Geographic then made a serious error when it said that this sea level rise could occur if the polar ice caps melted. Note the plural. The North Polar ice cap is entirely floating, so, even if it all melted, it would not add to sea level rise at all. When floating ice melts, it does not change the water level. Put a block of ice in a glass of water and watch it.
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